Recent European country-of-origin assessments and a Dutch court ruling have increasingly given weight to the view that judicial action against people linked to the Hizmet (Gülen) movement in Turkey has declined, become more focused and is based on stricter evidentiary standards.
A new report by Prof. Dr. Em. Johan Vande Lanotte (27 July 2026) tests those assumptions against the evidence.
The study inventories all judicial actions concerning alleged movement links reported in Turkish media and social media during 2025: 342 operations and 4,386 reported detentions. Comparing these figures with partial official statistics, the report concludes that the actual number detained was likely at least twice as high. Every action is individually sourced, and the underlying dataset is published in the annexes.
What does the evidence show?
▪️ The numbers have fallen — but this does not necessarily mean a change in policy. Average annual reported operations fell from 1,149 in 2016–2019 to 431 in 2021–2025; reported detentions fell from 28,100 to 5,950 a year. The report links this largely to the huge number already prosecuted and the large number who have left Turkey.
▪️ The focus has shifted, not narrowed. The largest category of structural operations in 2025 targeted the alleged “current structure” of the movement, targeting the children or humanitarian aid recipients. Another major category targeted people supporting convicted, prosecuted or dismissed persons and their families, resulting in 1,033 detentions. Companies employing people linked to the movement have also been placed under trustee administration.
▪️ The grounds relied upon now reach deeply into ordinary life. Coaching students for exams, organising social activities, taking children to the cinema or bowling, providing financial support to affected families, visiting a grave, using prepaid SIM cards, or employing people previously linked to the movement have all appeared as evidentiary elements. Prosecution has therefore become less predictable, not more.
▪️ Turkish jurisprudence continues to conflict with the principles established by the ECtHR in Yalçınkaya and Yasak. The report finds that lawful conduct continues to be used to infer criminal intent rather than that intent being individually examined and proved.
The report’s conclusion has direct implications for European asylum policy:
There are fewer prosecutions. But for people whose lawful activities may be interpreted as indicating a link to the movement, the risk of prosecution has not decreased — while the ability to foresee that risk has diminished.
Download the report: https://lnkd.in/e2dW9jCr
